Geubels, B.M. (Barbara) (2019) External validation preoperative prediction model in patients with advanced ovarian carcinoma. thesis, Medicine.
Full text available on request.Abstract
Background: The purpose of this study is to externally validate the accuracy of a preoperative, non-invasive model to predict surgical outcome in patients with advanced epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC). Being able to predict surgical outcome may help in selecting patients for primary debulking surgery (PDS) or interval debulking surgery and avoid inappropriate laparotomies. We validated a non-invasive and multivariable model, Cancer Ovarii Non-invasive Assessment of Treatment Strategy (CONATS) index, to predict complete PDS and tested whether it could predict at least optimal PDS. Methods: Retrospectively data was collected from women who underwent PDS for advanced EOC from 2011 to 2018 at two tertiary centers. Variables included in the model (serum human epididymis protein 4, age and performance status) were assessed in order to predict surgical outcome. To evaluate the performance of the CONATS index, receiver-operating characteristics curves were generated to calculate the Area under the Curve (AUC). Results: A total of 107 patients with advanced EOC who underwent PDS were analyzed. External validation of the CONATS index demonstrated an AUC of 0.62 in predicting complete PDS and did not match the high accuracy of the CONATS index in the primary article (AUC = 0.85). Testing the CONATS index demonstrated an AUC of 0.68 in predicting at least optimal PDS. Conclusion: The performance of the CONATS index in predicting complete PDS is poor in external validation. Moreover, the CONATS index performed poor in predicting at least optimal PDS. The model has a poor discriminative ability for guiding in treatment decision and avoid futile laparotomies.
| Item Type: | Thesis (UNSPECIFIED) |
|---|---|
| Supervisor name: | Lok, Dr. C. A. R. (Christianne) and Lof, MD. PhD. P. (Pien) and Oonk, Dr. M.H.M. (Maaike) |
| Faculty: | Medical Sciences |
| Date Deposited: | 02 Sep 2025 11:24 |
| Last Modified: | 02 Sep 2025 11:24 |
| URI: | https://umcg.studenttheses.ub.rug.nl/id/eprint/3822 |
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