Visser, K.A. (Kyrill) (2019) Quantification of pressure on passers in football matches to predict pass successfulness. thesis, Sport Sciences.
Full text available on request.Abstract
To study tactics in football with positional tracking data, the outcome of passes can be used to evaluate performance behaviour by the attacking and defending team. Previous research has shown that player density of the defending team and exerted pressure on passes is higher in the defending team’s half. This study aims to assess to what extent pass accuracy is influenced by the exerted pressure on the passer and the distance to the opponent’s goal at pass reception/interception. 120984 passes in 120 matches in the highest Dutch professional football league were analysed. To quantify pressure exerted on the passer, an existing pressure model was adapted to better catch the influence of the pressing defenders. Using a machine learning technique, probabilities of pass successfulness were predicted with the exerted pressure on passers and the distance to the opponent’s goal at pass reception. A binary logistic regression was used to create a model that classified passes as either successful or intercepted. The pressure exerted on passers who passed successfully (6.6 ± 16) was lower compared to the pressure exerted on passers whose passes were intercepted (12.4 ± 22). When the distance between the opponent’s goal and the pass receiver was lower, the probability that the pass would be successful was lower. 67% of the passes were classified accurately with a Log Loss of 0.62. The distance between the opponent’s goal and the pass receiver was the strongest predictor of pass successfulness. Although the recall was 92%, a relatively high amount of passes were incorrectly classified as successful. This study showed that the pressure model is able to quantify pressure in relation to the successfulness of attacking plays. Receiving a pass closer to the opponent’s goal and a higher exerted pressure on the passer decreases pass accuracy. Using a machine learning technique, classification of pass successfulness was reasonable accurate. Keywords: football, tactical analysis, setting pressure, predicting pass successfulness
| Item Type: | Thesis (UNSPECIFIED) |
|---|---|
| Supervisor name: | Goes, F.R. and Lemmink, prof. dr. K.A.P.M. and Frencken, dr. W.G.P. |
| Faculty: | Medical Sciences |
| Date Deposited: | 24 May 2022 10:03 |
| Last Modified: | 24 May 2022 10:03 |
| URI: | https://umcg.studenttheses.ub.rug.nl/id/eprint/3435 |
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